What are the chances of weight loss?

im entering my freshmen year of college this fall. i have been struggling with my weight since my frosh year of high school/: i've been dropping from 175 to 169 but later on going back up. i'm 5'7 and a half:P i was active my whole high sch career but now i dont have any coaches to scream at me so training by myself is hard and unmotivational for me! i'll be moving to tucson az and i want to know if i have a higher chance of losing weight with all the heat n what not? i know i know... eat less n move more! im eating less everyday but sometime i slip but thats typical! i drink h2o usually a liter a day as for exercise... still working on it...